Friday, November 28, 2008

Maoni ya Wananchi Tanzania - Afrobarometer


AFROBAROMETER 2008

Key Findings for Tanzania

Introduction to the Survey

The Afrobarometer survey seeks citizen’s opinions on the way their countries are managed economically, politically and socially. This is a regional survey, currently involving 20 countries in Eastern, Southern and Western Africa . Prior surveys were held in Tanzanian in 2001, 2003 & 2005.

Further information can be obtained from: www.afrobarometer.org.

The questionnaire is standardised across the countries participating in the surveys, with subjects covering: democracy, rule of law, politics, corruption, management of the economy, service provision, governance, citizens’ trust in the leadership and institutions of governance, and livelihood. In addition, 14 Tanzania specific questions relating to the East African Community; the selection process for the Cabinet, and the process for contracting large international tenders were posed to the survey participants.

Overall Summary

Looking at the overall survey results for the last four surveys (2001-2008), a major difference is the confidence in responses of the respondents, which is a positive trend. The confidence level for responding is high, though there are still some questions where some people are reluctant to give their opinion, particularly on questions relating to democracy. However, there is a clear overall decrease in the proportion of this type of non-committal response as compared to the survey findings for 2005. There could be many reasons for this, perhaps the fact that 2005 was the year of national elections had an influence on the volume of “Don’t Knows”. In addition, increasing communication efforts since 2006, particularly the growth in the strength of the media may have aided citizens to feel more informed.

In our findings, we have picked those responses with highest percentages. In this case, the remaining percentage is therefore, distributed to the rest of the response options in each respective question.

Generally, people are satisfied with democracy in Tanzania , there is a marked improvement from the last survey conducted in 2005, and to a lesser extent since the surveys commenced in 2001. Variations exist, especially with the Zanzibar findings, notably Pemba .

Respondents’ opinions indicate that the political environment appears healthier in Mainland Tanzania than in Zanzibar , particularly Pemba . There is room for improvement regarding political expression, especially in Zanzibar , where there has been a marked decrease from previous surveys.

Respondents’ trust in President Kikwete is high, along with satisfaction with his performance. Respondents trust the institutions of governance, with slight differences between the Mainland and Zanzibar . These levels of trust have been more or less maintained across the survey questions, with some variations.

There is need for improvement in the application of the rule of law, as there is a perception of discrimination against ‘ordinary’ citizens.

Respondents do not perceive institutions of governance as being highly corrupt, and these results have been fairly consistent over the four surveys. However, the responses indicate that there is much room for improvement regarding tax officials and police.

There is general dissatisfaction with the management of the economy, especially inflation, job creation, livelihood and the income gap between the rich and poor. There is deterioration in respondents’ opinions on economic issues in the surveys from previous years, though this might reflect to some degree the then ongoing impact of the global issues of rising fuel and food prices (the survey was conducted in July 2008).

Water and sanitation remain as the major areas of dissatisfaction in the social sector.

Sample Methodology

There were 1,208 respondents aged from 18 to 75, an even split of male and female respondents. Nearly 55% of the respondents had completed primary school, and 74% of the respondents were living in rural areas. The survey was conducted during July 2008.

The sample was randomly drawn from every region of the country, with each Mainland region’s share of the sample in proportion to its share of population. Using this formula Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba) should have had a sample of less than 30 respondents, yet the final sample was Mainland 1,096 respondents = 91%, and Zanzibar 112 respondents = 9%. As Zanzibar has autonomy in many respects of issues investigated, there was a deliberate over sampling of Zanzibar , thus the results from Zanzibar can be interpreted with a high level of confidence. The sample was based on the National Master Sample and the margin of error was +/-3%.

Democracy

In general, there is a high level of satisfaction with the degree of democracy and its mechanisms for implementation.

· 74% of the respondents overall perceive Tanzania as democratic; Zanzibar 64%. This is the highest percentage overall since the surveys commenced in 2001. The lowest response was 40% for the 2005 survey.

· 70% of the respondents overall are satisfied with the way democracy works; Unguja 57%%; Pemba 43%. This is an upward trend from the surveys of 2005 at 39%, and 2003 and 2001, where 62% was recorded for both surveys.

· However, 63% of the respondents overall believe that their voice is not heard between elections; Unguja 76%, Pemba 73%.

· 87% of the respondents overall believe that the 2005 general election was free and fair; Unguja 68%, Pemba 33%.

Politics

People are generally satisfied with the current political environment.

· 48% overall believe that there is freedom of expression on issues of politics; this is a marked decrease from the 70% recorded in the 2005 survey, and the lowest record for all four surveys. Furthermore, 82% of the Zanzibaris believe that one has to be careful when expressing political opinions.

· 71% overall do not fear political intimidation or violence during election campaigns; in strong contrast 81% of the respondents from Zanzibar fear political intimidation during campaigns.

· 60% do not believe that competition between parties leads to conflict; this is up from 45% and 51% for 2005 and 2003 respectively, and reflects a ‘healthy’ and stable political environment. However, 71% of Zanzibaris believe that it does lead to conflict; Pemba 88%.

· 81% of the respondents overall trust the ruling party; a decrease from the peak recorded in 2005 of 89%, however this is still a high level of trust. Unguja 68%, Pemba 48%.

· 56% overall do not trust the opposition political parties; a slight decrease form the 62% recorded in the 2005 survey. Unguja 54%, Pemba 48%.

· 82% overall feel close to a political party; 76% reported this in the prior survey. Unguja 74%, Pemba 90%.

· 71% overall indicated that they are close to CCM; a slight increase from 69% in 2005. Unguja 64%, Pemba 43%.

5% overall indicated that they are close to CUF; a slight increase from 4% in 2005. Unguja 6%, Pemba 45%.

· 79% of the respondents overall would vote for CCM if elections were held the day after this survey (July 2008), this was 83% in 2005. 5% would vote for CUF, 4% in 2005. Unguja 63%, Pemba 45%.

Trust in the President

Citizens’ trust in President Kikwete is high, this perception cuts across the entire country, including Unguja and Pemba .

· 88% of the people overall trust the President; this is within the range of the results for the three previous surveys (which ranged from 87% to 94%), indicating that perhaps it is the position of President which is regarded as trustworthy, as there was a change of the President during this survey’s history. Zanzibar 78%.

· 90% approve of the way that President Kikwete has performed his job over the last 12 months (ending July 2008). The three prior surveys recorded a range of 84% to 93% for his predecessor. Zanzibar 80%, Pemba 70%.

· 76% believe the President complies with the laws of this country; Zanzibar 57%.

Trust in the Institutions of Governance

In general, there is a high level of trust in the institutions of governance.

· 82% of citizens overall trust Parliament. There has been a decrease in the level of trust from the peak recorded in 2001 of 90%, but this is still a high level of trust. Zanzibar 70%, Pemba 65%.

· 65% of citizens overall are satisfied with the performance of their Member of Parliament during the preceding 12 months; Unguja 50%, Pemba 75%.

· 66% of citizens overall indicated that businessmen who win parliamentary elections should not be appointed to Cabinet positions, due to potential conflicts of interest.

· Generally, Tanzanians are undecided about the appointment of cabinet ministers from the Parliament. However, 65% of the Unguja respondents had no problem with ministers appointed from Parliament, while in contrast 73% of Pemba respondents thought that there should be separation of powers between the executive and the legislature.

· 77% of citizens overall trust the National Electoral Commission; this is a decrease in the level of trust from the peak recorded in 2005 of 86%, perhaps this was a reflection of the Commission’s prominence in the public arena, as 2005 was the year of National Elections. Zanzibar 64%, Pemba 53%.

· 74% of citizens overall trust elected local government councillors; Zanzibar 68%, Pemba 75%.

* 68% of citizens overall are satisfied with the performance of their elected local government councillor; Unguja 58%, Pemba 68%.

· 73% of citizens overall trust the courts of law; Zanzibar 63%, Pemba 58%.

· 61% of citizens overall trust the police; Unguja 50%; Pemba 60%.

· 66% of citizens overall are satisfied with the Government’s efforts to reduce crime; a small decrease from the 2005 survey findings of 69%. (The lowest rating was 56% recorded in 2003). Unguja 36%, Pemba 73%.

Rule of Law

In general, people are unhappy about discrimination in the application of the rule of law.

· 45% believe that there is unequal treatment under the law; this is a slight increase from 2005 (42%). Zanzibari respondents recorded 72%.

· 50% believe officials who commit crimes go unpunished; Zanzibar 76%.

· 84% believe ordinary people who break the law are punished.

Corruption within the Institutions of Governance

There is a general perception that there is not a high level of corruption within the institutions of governance.

· 56% overall believe that the Government is fighting corruption; this finding is down from the overall survey high of 61% recorded in 2005. Zanzibar 64%.

· 64% overall indicated that the President and the officials in his office are not involved in corruption; Zanzibar 44%. This perception could be influenced by the level of interaction between the Office of the President and the public on this issue.

· 72% overall indicated that Members of Parliament are not involved in corruption.

· 85% of citizens overall indicated that Parliament should review government contracts on behalf of citizens.

· 72% overall indicated that elected local government councillors are not involved in corruption.

· 65% of citizens overall indicated that government officials are not involved in corruption.

· 71% of citizens overall indicated that any public official under investigation for corruption should immediately resign to protect the integrity and credibility of Government; Unguja 65%, Pemba 93%.

· 63% overall indicated that judges and magistrates are not involved in corruption; Zanzibar 69%.

· 57% overall indicated that tax officials were not involved in corruption; Zanzibar 68%.

· 53% overall indicated that the police are not involved in corruption; Zanzibar 59%. However, only 43% of the respondents from Pemba believed that the police were not involved in corruption.

Management of the Economy

In general, there is dissatisfaction with the way the economy is managed.

· 51% overall are dissatisfied with the management of the economy; this is a marked increase from prior surveys – 19% in 2005 and 25% in 2003. Zanzibar 59%, Pemba 53%.

· 64% overall are dissatisfied with Government’s efforts to create jobs; (in the three prior surveys this has ranged from 65% in 2003 to 53% in 2005). Zanzibar 76%, Pemba 80%.

· 82% overall are dissatisfied with Government’s management of keeping prices down, a sharp increase to the prior surveys, from 50% in 2001, to a 41% in 2003 and 42% in 2005.

· 78% overall are dissatisfied with Government’s efforts in narrowing the income gap between the rich and the poor. This dissatisfaction has ranged from 54% (2005) to 70% (2001) in prior Afrobarometer surveys.

· 61% overall are dissatisfied with the Government’s efforts in providing a reliable supply of electricity.

· 56% overall expressed satisfaction with Government’s efforts in maintaining roads and bridges.

· 70% overall expressed satisfaction with the Government’s efforts to protect rivers and forests; Unguja 48%, Pemba 90%.

Livelihood

There is a general dissatisfaction with living standards.

· 70% overall are dissatisfied with Government’s efforts to improve standards of living.

· 56% overall are dissatisfied with Government’s efforts to ensure everyone has enough to eat; this is an increase of the 2005 findings of 47%. Unguja 64%, Pemba 53%.

Provision of Social Services

There is general satisfaction with the provision of social services, except for water and sanitation.

· 78% overall are happy with Government’s efforts in addressing educational needs; a decrease from the 2005 high of 85%, but still up on the findings for 2003 and 2001. Unguja 42%, Pemba 63%.

· 63% overall are happy with the Government’s efforts in improving basic health services; a decrease form the high of 70% recorded in the 2003 and 2005 surveys. Unguja 40%, Pemba 63%.

· 83% overall are satisfied with Government’s efforts in combating HIV/AIDS; this positive perception has grown each survey round, with 2005 recording 80%. Unguja 57%, Pemba 88%.

· 55% overall are unhappy with Government’s efforts to provide water and sanitation services; this result is consistent with the 2005 and 2003 surveys, 54% and 52% respectively. Unguja 60%, Pemba 48%.

East African Community

In general, Mainland Tanzanians support economic integration of East African, however many respondents, especially those from Zanzibar , did not reveal their preference on various aspects of the integration. In addition, Mainland Tanzanians do not support political and military unification.

Further Information:

REPOA will be publishing briefs relating to this survey during January 2009.

Afrobarometer has a website which contains reports and data for all the countries involved: www.afrobarometer.org

Readers are referred to another public perception survey, which covers similar material:

‘Views of the People 2007. Tanzanians give their opinions on: Growth and Reduction of Income Poverty, Their Quality of Life and Social Well-being, and Governance and Accountability’.

This is the largest perception survey conducted in Mainland Tanzania to date. 7,879 Tanzanians, aged from 7 to 90 years, from ten mainland regions, were asked for their opinion on aspects of: economic progress, their standard of living, quality of and access to economic and social services, and trends in governance. This publication was produced by the Research and Analysis Working Group of the MKUKUTA Monitoring System, Ministry of Planning, Economy and Empowerment, and is available from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs and REPOA.

Sonja Tiscenko

Website: http://www.repoa.or.tz

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